President Trump made a clear promise to voters in 2024: bring back the American Dream by removing immigrants who were, in his words, "taking jobs from American workers and driving down their wages." A few years later, the results of that policy are now showing up in the labor market — and they are not what the administration hoped for.
New data reveals that U.S.-born unemployment is climbing while wage growth has stalled. The plan to put American workers first appears to be backfiring, raising questions about whether the strategy actually helps the people it was designed to protect.
Historic Drop in Immigration Under Trump Policy
The centerpiece of Trump's worker-first agenda was reducing immigration. That goal has been achieved — dramatically. January data from the Census Bureau showed a historic decline in net international migration, falling from a peak of 2.7 million people in 2024 to an estimated 321,000 by mid-2026.
According to Forbes, the reduction in immigration was supposed to free up jobs for American-born workers. Instead, the U.S.-born unemployment rate has risen since the policy took effect.
The Brookings Institution puts the situation in even starker terms, suggesting the U.S. could see negative net migration this year — meaning more people leaving the country than entering it.
Unemployment Holds Steady, But Not for U.S.-Born Workers
Economists previously told Fortune that the changing migration pattern helped stabilize the overall U.S. unemployment rate as demand dropped over the past few years. The headline rate has held steady at 4.1% in the latest data.
But that stability masks a troubling trend beneath the surface. While the overall rate looks fine, the breakdown by birth status tells a different story — U.S.-born workers are seeing their unemployment numbers rise even as the aggregate figures remain flat.
"Removing immigrants 'taking jobs from American workers and driving down their wages' was a key part of the plan." — The White House
Wage Growth Stalls Despite Worker Shortage
The theory behind the immigration crackdown was simple: fewer workers competing for jobs would mean employers would have to pay more. That logic has not played out in the data.
Wage growth for American-born workers has stalled, according to the latest figures. The expected boost in paychecks that the policy was supposed to deliver has not materialized.
This creates a paradox: the administration reduced the labor supply, but wages are not rising. Meanwhile, the people the policy was meant to help — U.S.-born workers — are actually seeing their employment situation worsen.
What the Numbers Mean for American Workers
The disconnect between the policy's promise and its results is striking. Trump's administration argued that removing immigrants would protect American jobs and push wages up. The evidence suggests the opposite is happening.
- Net migration fell from 2.7 million to 321,000 — a massive reduction in labor supply
- U.S.-born unemployment rose after the immigration reduction took effect
- Wage growth stalled despite the smaller worker pool
- Brookings projects possible negative net migration this year
The overall unemployment rate of 4.1% looks healthy on paper. But that number hides the fact that the benefits of the policy are not reaching the workers it was designed to help.
Our Take: A Policy That Missed Its Target
To put it plainly, this is a policy that promised one thing and delivered another. The administration said cutting immigration would protect American workers. Instead, U.S.-born unemployment is up and wages are flat.
The problem is clear: removing workers from the labor market does not automatically create better conditions for those who remain. The economy does not work that simply. When you shrink the labor supply without creating new demand, you do not get higher wages — you get a stagnant market with fewer opportunities for everyone.
In our view, this should be a wake-up call. Policies based on the idea that immigrants are the enemy of American workers ignore the complex reality of how labor markets actually function. The data is now in, and it does not support the administration's central claim.
For American workers, the message is sobering: the grand plan to put them first has not delivered. The question now is whether policymakers will acknowledge the failure and adjust course, or double down on a strategy that is demonstrably not working.
The numbers are not political — they are factual. U.S.-born unemployment is rising. Wage growth is stalled. And the immigration crackdown that was supposed to fix both problems is the very policy that preceded them.
